Droned Out: Surveilling the Noise in the Russian War in Ukraine
summary
Recorded Future monitors roughly 250 threat groups (about 100 active per day) and counts ~700,000 references to claimed cyber activity in the first 100 days and ~2.5 million over the first year, with a March 2022 spike of ~350,000 references. Law enforcement actions (eight REvil arrests on Jan 14, 2022; Feb 7 seizures of ~$500M in card data) and conscription-driven brain drain disrupt malware‑as‑a‑service (Raccoon operator arrested), while DDoS dominates hacktivist activity (94% of political incidents) and IT Army verifiably executes ~150 impactful attacks.
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chapters (12)
- 0:00Introduction and goals
- 2:45Intelligence landscape
- 5:43Public-private partnerships
- 10:03Russian cyber doctrine
- 14:30Pre-war trends and arrests
- 18:23Sham arrests and narrative
- 23:07Credential leaks and hacks
- 26:15Plausible deniability
- 31:45Rise of hacktivism
- 37:10Hacktivist impact analysis
- 40:45Underground economy shifts
- 46:59Conclusion and future risks
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