Highlights - Economic Outlook 2016
summary
Global growth shifts from a lukewarm expansion toward a slowdown as China and emerging markets decelerate, oil price declines reflect weak aggregate demand rather than only oversupply, and equity corrections risk feeding back into the real economy. Monetary policy shows unconventional tools — ZIRP QE negative rates forward guidance — while fiscal stimulus remains absent, creating a policy mix problem. The recession tail risk is about 20%, the projection is not another global financial crisis but a year of weaker growth and falling asset prices.
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