Economic Outlook 2016
summary
Global growth starts 2016 in turmoil and is likely to slow, not collapse, with recession probability near 20% while a China bumpy landing trims growth from roughly 6% now toward 5% by decade end. Fed rate hikes look premature and may reverse. Oil falls from both excess supply and weak demand, squeezing energy firms and credit, while about $2 trillion negative-yield bonds sit in Europe and Japan. Asset inflation rises even as goods inflation falls and automation threatens roughly 50% of US jobs within a decade.
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