Keynote: Drop Your Tools – Does Expertise have a Dark Side?
summary
Argument that expertise can blind decision making is illustrated with two failures and controlled studies: a 1971 Hartford convention roof (10,000 seats, ~2,300 steel members on four columns) later collapses in 1978 under half the design snow after repeated ignored warnings; the Mann Gulch wildfire in 1949 produces 13 firefighters died when crews cling to tools and doctrine instead of improvising; one leader uses an escape fire and survives; priming experiments (Florida effect, University of Pittsburgh baseball R.A.T. tests) show expertise and cues bias solutions; training that times runs with and without tools and teaches law of the instrument principles actually changes behaviour.
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chapters (20)
- 0:00Introduction
- 0:36The Hartford Convention Center
- 1:49What went wrong
- 4:50Expertise
- 5:33Illusion of Knowledge
- 7:29The US
- 9:14Smokejumpers
- 13:04Dry Valley
- 14:14Northern Slope
- 14:40Southern Slope
- 17:04Spot fires
- 17:33Blowup
- 21:03The Ridge
- 22:04The Smoke
- 26:15Two Questions
- 27:43The Florida Effect
- 34:14Negative Priming
- 38:16The Law of the Instrument
- 40:54Drop Your Tools
- 43:52Failure to Drop Your Tools
