From Human Computers to AI - the history and future of software developers
summary
A 1940s origin story leads to concrete impacts today: a GitHub experiment with ~90 developers finds Copilot cuts an HTTP server task from 2h41 to 1h11, a 55% productivity increase, while telemetry shows the median developer actually programs about 47 minutes per day and spends ~70% of coding time on understanding code. Four future scenarios map outcomes from high automation restricted to high automation accessible, implying different job mixes (supervisor, creative, factory worker) and clear bets to place now.
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chapters (9)
- 0:00The future of work
- 4:00History of the profession
- 13:45Birth of the modern industry
- 20:19The golden eras of tech
- 28:15Scaling and infrastructure
- 31:12AI impact on productivity
- 41:31An optimistic future
- 44:44Scenario planning for tech
- 52:13Taking action
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