How to Steal an Election

on YouTube ↗01h 05m

" summary

Demonstrates concrete methods and numbers: use segmentation and clustering to shrink 65 million voters to 35 million voters to 31 marginal seats (under 8,000 voters) and then target the persuadable quarter (~2,000 people) with microtargeted social ads. Combines systemic attacks — gerrymandering, postal vote tossing and caging via strict ID rules — with behavioral tools (Pygmalion, broken windows, system justification), A/B/C and between-measures testing, uplift modeling and fabricated authority to design, test and deploy highly effective influence campaigns.

AI-written summary · about

" chapters (47)

1. 0:00Intro
2. 1:00About me
3. 1:40Prediction markets
4. 2:37Influence the result
5. 3:06How would I hack an election
6. 3:32Example of amplification
7. 4:39The macro and micro scales
8. 5:24Segmentation and clustering
9. 6:20Oneperson onevote
10. 8:18Most marginal seats
11. 9:17what is gerrymandering
12. 10:51how would we influence
13. 11:09tossing
14. 12:34caging
15. 13:39voting
16. 15:27voter fraud
17. 17:19Bribery
18. 18:22Oldfashioned blackmail
19. 19:23What I want to do
20. 19:59demo
21. 24:13compensation effect
22. 26:38broken window effect
23. 28:41Peer Pressure
24. 29:13Obedience to Authority
25. 30:03The Nazis
26. 33:34Ballot Tossing Caging
27. 33:52The Microlevel
28. 34:10The Current Government
29. 34:23Brexit
30. 36:05Stability
31. 36:15Control
32. 36:41Fear
33. 36:58PostFactual Society
34. 38:56The EU
35. 40:33Lies
36. 44:15Turkey Joining
37. 45:12Psychological Data Science
38. 45:38Attack Vector
39. 48:20Simple People
40. 49:28Dozier
41. 49:50Probability
42. 51:29Predictability Demonstration
43. 55:25Social Media Advertising
44. 56:02ABC Testing
45. 57:35Between Measures Testing
46. 58:09Uplift Modeling
47. 58:28The 4 Quadrants

" related talks

• 01h 07mPolitical behavioural targetingFrank Pasquale, Chris Hoofnagle, Frederik Zuiderveen Borgesius, Claes de Vreese, D. Sunshine Hillygus, Gabriela Zanfir · CPDP 2016
• 01h 42mRecreating, Understanding, and Visualizing FiveThirtyEight's...Matthew Brems, Joseph Nelson · PyData DC 2018
• 30mWeaponizing data for politicsShivam Shankar Singh · The Fifth Elephant 2018
• 19mMad Men to Math MenAlexander Nix, Matthew Freud · Web Summit 2017
• 29mGerrymandering AustraliaRachel Bunder · PyCon AU 2026
• 17mSecrets of Antony Green: Calculating notional margins for electoral redistributionsAlex Lum · FOSS4G SotM Oceania 2018
• 15m"Red State, Blue State: ElectionMatthew Ericson · Where 2.0 2009
• 28mDelicious Democracy: snagging and mapping citizen dataKeith Moss · FOSS4G SotM Oceania 2019