State of Startups and AI 2025
summary
Prediction: many companies move from co‑pilot augmentation to agentic automation, with agents up 50% among startup applications and early wins in production. Inference pricing falls sharply — GPT‑4 goes from $30/million tokens to $2 and distilled models near $0.10 per million, enabling broad use. Real outcomes: Windsurf sells to OpenAI for $3B, Harvey hits ~$70M ARR, Sierra resolves 70% of customer queries, Open Evidence reaches one‑third of US doctors weekly. Build “cursor for X” orchestration, retrieval, and UX that packages context and validates outputs; execution is the moat.
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chapters (11)
- 0:00Intro
- 1:43About Conviction
- 3:17AI Hype Cycle
- 4:50Capabilities
- 8:14multimodality
- 9:42model market
- 11:17application layer
- 13:44Cursor
- 16:09AI Leaprog Effect
- 17:43Copilots
- 20:59Conclusion
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