Beyond Estimates
summary
Argues that upfront estimates create waste, slow feedback and false predictability, and urges frequent delivery and experiments instead of reestimating backlogs (rework can multiply cost by 3x to 4x). Recommends mob programming and tiny experiments: an example MVP built in a week by Valve (one room, one player), and an IBM tool built in two weeks by two engineers built CICS in two weeks that became a decade‑long cash cow. Emphasizes selling speed, revenue and risk reduction to management.
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chapters (22)
- 0:00Introduction
- 1:02Avoiding traditional estimates
- 3:31No estimates origins
- 5:59Mob programming
- 8:03Objections to no estimates
- 10:12Building and validating minimum viable products
- 13:25Customer value focus
- 15:34Waste of re-estimation
- 18:49Estimates distract from goals
- 22:50Why estimates fail in agile
- 23:13Fear drives estimation
- 24:57Speaking management’s language
- 26:00Risk reduction via delivery
- 27:26Stopping early when valuable
- 29:14Politics in estimation culture
- 31:44Selling agility in agencies
- 32:06Q&A: Cost without estimates
- 34:34Q&A: Choosing options
- 36:21Q&A: Long-term choices
- 37:56Q&A: Investments vs solutions
- 39:21Q&A: Overcoming resistance
- 40:55Q&A: Management politics
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