Estimates or NoEstimates
summary
Argues that time/effort estimates are guesses that often mislead and proposes slicing work into decoupled, valuable chunks instead. Demonstrates with stopwatch tic‑tac‑toe exercise and post‑it affinity grouping: observed ranges like 11–26s, 22–41s, 30–90s up to 180s and a pattern of estimates roughly doubling across constraints. Uses QA pairing and quick feedback loops to reduce waste, then shows an 80/20-style delivery where three small slices produce usable outcomes and roughly $30k/week in realized value by deliver smallest valuable slice rather than upfront estimates.
AI-written summary · about
chapters (9)
- 0:00Introduction and workshop purpose
- 5:06What is an estimate?
- 17:36Dysfunctions of estimates
- 27:53Exercise on estimating simple tasks
- 41:20Analyzing the exercise results
- 1:09:18Why do we do estimates?
- 1:23:26Symptoms vs. problems in projects
- 1:33:03Personal approach to no estimates
- 1:44:00Q&A and closing remarks
related talks
03h 00mBeyond Estimates (Estimates and NoEstimates ) - Let's Explore the Possibilities
42mBeyond Estimates (Estimates and "NoEstimates") - Let's Explore the Possibilities
58mThe State of NoEstimates
48mRespect estimates
46mEstimates and complexity: a tale in 42 and a half minutes
41mSo you think you can estimate? The lost art of useful estimates
45mBeyond Estimates
47mCreating efficient, accurate, software estimations