Instrumental Variables in Sparse and Dynamical Settings
Talkat Quantum Physics and Statistical Causal Models (Simons Institute workshop, 2022) · 2022-04-27..04-29·
summary
Shows that when causal effects are sparse and instruments propagate enough heterogeneity, the true linear beta is the sparsest solution in the solution space of IV moment equations and becomes unique under two concrete conditions: a rank condition on the instruments-to-parents matrix and no exact cancellation of directed paths (graphically: at least as many node-disjoint instrument→parent paths as parents). Gives a counterexample with a bottlenecked three-edge collapse, proposes nuisance IV and conditional-IV fixes for VAR time series, and reports successful applied tests on biological and chemical examples.
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