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Quantum Physics and Statistical Causal Models (Simons Institute workshop, 2022)

quantum foundations theorists, causal discovery researchers, graphical-model and probabilistic-inference researchers, statisticians and econometricians working on causal inference, experimental quantum optics and superconducting experimentalists, applied mathematicians and optimization researchers

inflation technique for causal inference; entangled quantum switch experiments; genuinely multipartite GHZ nonlocality; generalized instrumental variable inequalities; latent variable cardinality bounds; quantum structural models with process operators; entropic e-separation inequalities; Bell-style causal-interaction proofs; local marginal polytope and graph covers; sequential models with Positivstellensatz relaxations; Bayesian calculus for density matrices; arguments for Born probabilities

titleauthorlength
Applications of The Inflation Technique for Causal InferenceElie Wolfe46m
Presents the inflation technique as a concrete method: build inflation graphs by taking IID copies of latent roots, convert expressible monomials and symmetry…
Talk
Self-Tests of Physical Theories in Networks and Their Implications for the Foundations of...Mirjam Weilenmann41m
Proposes adaptive CHSH network tests that change the Bell graph to force mid‑node operations and shows two concrete tasks: one that rules out box‑world/PR‑box…
Talk
Experimental Entanglement of Temporal OrderGiulia Rubino51m
First demonstration of indefinite temporal order outside quantum formalism, showing experimental outcomes that rule out a class of generalized probabilistic…
Talk
The Most General Causal Theory of Correlations Restricted to Bounded Multipartite...Marc-Olivier Renou42m
Constructs an explicit GHZ-based measurement protocol whose output distribution cannot be reproduced by any model built only from shared randomness plus…
Talk
Sequential ModelsMiguel Navascues36m
Defines sequential models as time-evolving systems with an internal state, global unknown evolution parameters, and adversarial per-step uncontrolled…
Talk
Generalized Instrumental Inequalities: Complexity, Sharpness, RobustnessIsmael Mourifie45m
Generalized instrumental inequalities extend Pearl’s IV tests to binary treatment with unrestricted (including continuous) outcome and instruments and claim a…
Talk
Latent Variable Justifies the Stronger IV BoundsRichard Guo45m
Shows that the Balke–Pearl “sharp” IV bounds follow from the existence of a latent confounder plus stochastic exclusion, not cross-world individal exclusion…
Talk
Cardinality Bounds and Parameterization for Latent Variable Graphical ModelsNoam Finkelstein42m
Claim: any latent discrete variable can be assumed finite without restricting the marginal model, and tighter Carathéodory's theorem bounds follow by measuring…
Talk
A Semantics for Counterfactuals in Quantum Causal ModelsEric Cavalcanti49m
Introduces a formal semantics that completes Pearl’s causal ladder for quantum setups by defining a quantum structural model built from Choi–Jamiolkowski…
Talk
Graphical Criteria for Inequality Constraints in Directed Acyclic Graphs with Hidden VariablesBeata Zjawin43m
Shows that e-separation => entropic inequalities gives explicit, testable entropy bounds that reproduce some quantifier-elimination results and are…
Talk
A Proof of Bell’s Inequality in Quantum Mechanics Using Causal InteractionsJames Robins48m
A compact, concrete proof shows that Bell inequalities follow from standard counterfactual (Neyman) causal-interaction logic and that experimentally observed…
Talk
On Polytopes and Convex Sets Associated with Graphical Models in Classical and Quantum...Pascal Vontobel46m
Defines the local marginal polytope and shows it is typically strictly larger than the true marginal polytope, proves that points in the larger set correspond…
Talk
Marginal DAG Models Equivalent to Another DAGRobin Evans44m
Claim: a marginal DAG model equals the marginal model of some DAG on the observed variables if and only if the original MDAG induces no non‑trivial inequality…
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Causal ReductionsJoris Mooij44m
Proposes a causal reduction that collapses arbitrary latent confounders into a single W (matching X in the observational regime) and proves observational…
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Marginal Treatment Effects with Misclassified TreatmentDésiré Kédagni52m
Derives identification and tight analytical bounds for the marginal treatment effect when a binary treatment is misclassified, showing MTE = derivative of E[Y…
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Instrumental Variables in Sparse and Dynamical SettingsJonas Peters43m
Shows that when causal effects are sparse and instruments propagate enough heterogeneity, the true linear beta is the sparsest solution in the solution space…
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A Bayesian Probability Calculus for Density MatricesManfred Warmuth49m
Defines a Bayesian calculus where probabilities are density matrices and derives joint, conditional and marginal rules using quantum relative entropy and…
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A Dynamic-Epistemic Approach to ConditionalsSonja Smets51m
Argues for a single dynamic-epistemic framework that represents conditionals as actions on models, using propositional dynamic logic, quantum dynamic logic…
Talk
Causal Influence in Quantum TheoryJonathan Barrett57m
Proposes a formal account of causality in quantum theory that defines causal influence by unitary evolution and uses Choi-Jamiołkowski operators to prove an…
Talk
"Fine-Tuned", "Unfaithful", "Unnatural": Abuse of Terminology in Causal ModelingTim Maudlin55m
Argues that causal‑model jargon like fine‑tuned / unfaithful / unnatural is being abused when applied to real quantum theories, using the three‑particle GHZ…
Talk
Causal Discovery in the Quantum ContextSally Shrapnel48m
Classical causal discovery breaks on Bell correlations, so the proposal formalizes quantum causal models via a process matrix W that factorizes into…
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Why Born Probabilities?Michael Weissman38m
Argues that Born probabilities can emerge from unitary quantum mechanics if the global state includes a high-entropy quantum noise background and observations…
Talk
Adjudicating Between Different Causal Accounts of Bell Inequality ViolationsRob Spekkens50m
Claims that classical causal models with inter-lab influences fit Bell-violation data better are tested by fitting models to a lab dataset with 25 measurement…
Talk
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