Respect estimates
summary
Claims that estimates are random variables because they depend on uncertain data and often vary wildly; gives a mathematical analogy and concrete failure like Berlin Brandenburg Airport to show predictable deadlines collapse. Critiques planning poker and scrum Tetris (gaming velocity), shows how arguing over points wastes time, and proposes practical changes: use expert estimates only for fixed‑price/budget decisions, adopt a simple 1–2–3 trivial/boring/risky tag for planning, experiment with sprint length, and consider developer energy, not just hours.
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chapters (12)
- 0:00Introduction and background
- 3:17What is an estimate
- 8:53Why estimates fail in IT
- 13:27Do we need estimates
- 18:04The problem with velocity
- 23:41Quality vs estimates
- 26:33Sprint reality check
- 29:23Agile’s lost focus
- 31:55Waterfall myth debunked
- 35:48Experimenting with process
- 37:54Developer energy as resource
- 41:04Q&A and closing remarks
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