Estimates are BS

on YouTube ↗07m

" summary

Claim: numeric estimates are useless and multiplying guesses hides error. Practical alternative: break tickets down as small as is reasonably possible so each ticket is externally testable, lands as its own pull request, and becomes uniform. Measure actual throughput, count throughput instead of points, build an average (for example one ticket per developer per day), and use that historical rate or Monte Carlo extrapolation to forecast dates — projects finish on time.

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