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Stephen Shaffer

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Quantifying Swiss Cheese, the Bayesian WayCVE/FIRST VulnCon 2026 & Annual CNA Summit2026-04-13
Builds a living Bayesian model that combines EPSS scores, asset inventories, control-effectiveness beta priors and breach‑and‑attack simulation telemetry to…
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Modeling Asset Risk Using Grouped EPSSCVE/FIRST VulnCon 20252025-04-07
Calculates the probability that at least one CVE on an asset is exploited in 30 days by taking the product of (1 − EPSS) per CVE and inverting it, implemented…
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