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Jay Jacobs

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The Vulnerability Identity CrisisFIRST Conference 2026 (FIRSTCON26)2026-06-14
Current vulnerability records lack consistent identity, so the talk proposes a structural working definition and a rearchitecture: a vulnerability is a…
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How EPSS Is Wrong and Useful at the Same TimeFIRST Conference 2026 (FIRSTCON26)2026-06-14
EPSS outputs a daily probability (0–100%) that a CVE sees observed exploitation in the next 30 days, trained on a matrix of roughly 2,800 features and ~110…
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A Paradigm Shift in Vulnerability Identity: Why Vulnerability Databases StruggleCVE/FIRST VulnCon 2026 & Annual CNA Summit2026-04-13
Argues for an identity-first redesign that replaces prose-heavy CVE records with small, machine-verifiable assertions; two years of weekly design work shows…
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CVE Decaf: Brewing Better and More Actionable Data QualityCVE/FIRST VulnCon 2026 & Annual CNA Summit2026-04-13
Introduces a practical Data Quality Assessment Framework that separates schema limits from how CNAs populate fields, classifying issues as population gap…
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BOF: Vulnerability Data ConsumersCVE/FIRST VulnCon 20252025-04-07
People describe concrete pain: brittle JSON/XML parsing, lots of one-off checks, and mass flattening of nested arrays; common tooling is bash + jq and Splunk…
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Towards a Minimum Viable Enumeration of VulnerabilitiesCVE/FIRST VulnCon 20252025-04-07
Proposal claims the absolute MVVE is just two fields: a unique public identifier and a product identifier including version/build, enough to initiate discovery…
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State of EPSS and What to Expect from Version 4CVE/FIRST VulnCon 20252025-04-07
EPSS v4 claims to predict the probability a CVE sees exploitation in the next 30 days and expands sources to include malware, GitHub, Shodan and commercial…
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Quantifying the Probability of Flaws in Open SourceRSA Conference 20242024-05-06
Analysis covers 30,000 GitHub projects used in enterprise apps, compares them to OpenSSF’s 1.2M repo database and finds only 48,000 overlap. Real app scans…
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Seeing the Vulnerable Forest Through the Exploited TreesCVE/FIRST VulnCon 2024 & Annual CNA Summit2024-03-25
Dataset combines sensors from Foret Shadowserver AlienVault GreyNoise F5 Cisco and Cyentia and records 13,266 CVEs across ~2,830 days as ~8.1 million rows of…
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EPSS: Challenges and Opportunities Going Forward + EPSS AMACVE/FIRST VulnCon 2024 & Annual CNA Summit2024-03-25
A live standard for estimating the probability a CVE is exploited in the next 30 days is now public and four years old, with scores produced for ~230,000 CVEs…
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Towards Real World Cyber Risk (Panel)FIRSTCON21 Virtual Edition 2.02021-06-07
A forecasting pipeline predicts total CVE volume up to a year using a serial-number estimator (WWII-style) plus a queuing (Little's law) model, achieving about…
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FIRSTCON21 - June 8 | Stream 2 Part 2 (14:30-15:30 UTC)33rd Annual FIRST Conference 20212021-06-06
Three concrete systems and measurements: a volume forecaster combines Little's Law queue modeling and CVE serial-number (capture‑recapture) prediction to…
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Nurture vs. Nature in AppSec: Data-Driven Measurement of DevSecOpsRSAC 20212021-05-17
Data from Veracode and Cyentia analyzes 132k applications, >1M scans and ~10M findings and shows about 3 in 4 apps have at least one flaw and ~1 in 4 have high…
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8 Million Findings in One Year: Fresh Look at the State of Software SecurityRSA Conference 2020 DevSecOps & Application Security2020-02-24
Jay Jacobs, Co-founder and Chief Data Scientist, Cyentia Institute Chris Wysopal, Co-Founder and Chief Technology Officer, Veracode What can we learn from 8.3…
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Visualizing SecurityBSidesSF 20202020-02-23
Animated packet captures from AWS reveal a slow, massive scan that originates from Vietnam and runs for roughly 40 hours across TCP and UDP, created by…
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