A Quickstart Guide to PyMC3
summary
Step‑by‑step code for building and sampling linear, hierarchical linear, logistic and hierarchical logistic models using PyMC3 with the Theano backend. Demonstrates simulated data and Boston housing, shows concrete issues (pandas frames -> numpy arrays, booleans -> ints, Python2/Unicode string quirks), compares ADVI (very fast) and NUTS sampler (much slower), reports typical R2/accuracy around 75–80%, and explains saving traces for an API. Github repo with the notebooks is provided in the description.
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chapters (14)
- 0:00PyMC3 introduction
- 3:35Setting up PyMC3 and basic imports
- 5:52Linear regression model
- 8:40Sampling with NUTS
- 10:23Analyzing results
- 13:16Real-world data use
- 15:21Common errors
- 20:29Posterior distributions
- 27:24Hierarchical linear regression
- 31:52Logistic regression & VI
- 37:40Save and reuse traces
- 42:25Hierarchical logistic regression
- 50:43Production tips
- 54:45Q&A
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