PNSQC 2013 - Payson Hall
summary
Estimation focuses on documented assumptions, simple math and controlled experiments: define what’s in and out, gather data and commit arithmetic, then show your work. Use divide‑and‑conquer (chunk big problems into familiar pieces), throw away clear outliers, and give range estimates not false precision — the ribbon demo is 42 ft 4 in, reference points tightened ranges, and the room key and basketball exercises show confidence improves with measured samples or short prototypes. Avoid “double it” as the default.
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chapters (13)
- 0:00Systems engineer to project manager
- 2:43What is an estimate
- 5:54Estimating ribbon length
- 12:51Humans and estimate complexity
- 20:22Reasonable prediction in estimates
- 24:43Define before estimating
- 29:23Three-second estimation quiz
- 35:58Time improves estimates
- 41:23Documenting estimate assumptions
- 50:24Hidden assumptions in brain
- 56:04Presenting estimates realistically
- 1:00:18Range vs point estimates
- 1:15:10Better estimation tips
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