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Estimation as Uncertainty Reduction

on YouTube 31m
Talkat Laracon EU 2019 · 2019-08-28..08-30· [engineering-leadership]

speaker

name:Michael Godeck
links:none on file

resources

video:https://youtu.be/dOtRvhjTRww
slides:none on file

summary

Estimation is uncertainty reduction: replace single-value guesses with range estimates that expose assumptions, calibrate confidence with an equivalent bet, decompose unknowns into nominal/ordinal/interval/rational scales, and model outcomes with Monte Carlo simulations or simple measurements. A random sample of five gives >90% probability the median falls between min and max, so tiny observations often cut entropy a lot. Built examples include an electrical-contractor Quattro Pro estimator and separation of Q‑time from work estimates.

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chapters (33)

  1. 0:00Intro
  2. 0:23What is this estimation thing, anyway?
  3. 2:08Precise plans hide uncertainty
  4. 3:17Leveraging Uncertainty
  5. 3:56What is this Estimation Thing?
  6. 4:39The Domain Expert
  7. 5:17Bundled Assumptions
  8. 6:05Unbundling Assumptions with Ranges
  9. 6:44Expressing Uncertainty
  10. 7:40Reducing Uncertainty
  11. 8:59Quantifying Uncertainty Reduction
  12. 10:00A Mathematical Theory of Communication
  13. 10:44Estimation as Uncertainty Reduction
  14. 11:24A Definition of Information Entropy
  15. 13:04Reducing Information Entropy ..how much does 5 random values reduce entropy?
  16. 13:1690% probability better than "no clue"
  17. 14:03Confidence Interval
  18. 15:45A Taxonomy of Measurement Methods
  19. 16:20Rational Scales: Time and Money
  20. 16:53Interval Scales: Story Points
  21. 17:33Mohs Scale of Mineral Hardness
  22. 18:00Ordinal Scales - 5 Star Rating
  23. 18:23Conflating ordinal and rational scales
  24. 18:44Ordinal Scales: The Cockburn Scale
  25. 19:43Nominal Scales INVES
  26. 20:06Nominal Scales ...qualitative measurement...
  27. 21:02Nominal Scales qualitative measurement...
  28. 22:43Diving Deeper...
  29. 23:09Estimate Validation Techniques
  30. 25:08Calibration
  31. 26:02Story Decomposition ...right-sizing stories is half the battle.
  32. 26:50Release Planning and Queue Time
  33. 28:07Monte Carlo Simulations for Project Estimation

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