Intro to Probabilistic Programming and Clojure’s Anglican
summary
Probabilistic programming is presented with concrete Clojure examples using Anglican running on the JVM, showing a beta prior coin model (40 tosses) and an AB test where simulated groups of 150 vs 250 users with 7% vs 4% conversion are recovered as posteriors via do-query sampling (20,000 samples, ~230s on the demo machine). The game-physics experiment attempts to infer gravity (true -80) and restitution (true 0.5) but fails to converge cleanly, illustrating limits; alternatives mentioned include Stan, PyMC and Biadera.
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chapters (15)
- 0:00Intro to probabilistic programming
- 1:08Speaker’s journey to Anglican
- 3:56Probabilistic programming and why
- 6:22Bayesian probability basics
- 10:54MCMC sampling explained
- 13:22How prob prog systems work
- 15:29Anglican features
- 16:12Coin toss with Anglican
- 16:55Learning coin bias
- 19:43AB testing with Anglican
- 25:23Game physics Bayesian inference
- 29:34Creative apps and Clojure
- 30:59Other prob prog tools
- 32:01Conclusions on Anglican
- 33:26Acknowledgements
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