A New Oracle for Predicting Future Technology
summary
Argues that predictive power comes from measuring information exchange not sci‑fi fantasies, using bandwidth and latency to explain why 3D TV collapses, why typing is ~50% faster than handwriting, and why the mouse endures for high‑precision, low‑latency tasks. Cites concrete devices and outcomes: early VR controllers and Oculus succeed for dual‑wield games; tilt brush creates new art but VR headsets with only 1600 by 1400 per eye and high don/doff latency limit productivity; smartphone AR and AR glasses remain marginal; discrete input like discrete events matters more than gesture glamour.
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chapters (45)
- 0:00Introduction
- 0:45Background
- 2:05Oracle of Delphi
- 3:44Not Predicted
- 5:37Science Fiction
- 7:31Virtual Reality
- 8:53Thesis
- 10:15Why did 3D TV fail
- 11:09The visual system
- 12:03Net result of 3D TV
- 12:37Sensational
- 13:08Informational Advantage
- 13:59The Past
- 15:06The Mouse
- 15:28The Pen
- 16:01Palm Pilot
- 16:45Tablet PCs
- 17:08Handwriting
- 17:34Touchscreens
- 18:10Microsoft Surface
- 18:34Informational Breakdown
- 20:32Touch
- 21:04Pen
- 22:55VR
- 24:21VR Screens
- 25:47Metaverse
- 27:12Minecraft VR
- 28:09Flight Games
- 29:14The Creative Space
- 30:29Future of the Hand
- 30:45Informational Properties
- 31:25Handsfree
- 31:57Smartphone AR
- 32:25Consumer AR
- 33:46Minecraft AR
- 34:53Urban Spoon
- 36:47The Future of AR
- 37:42The Future of Glasses
- 40:03Floating Screen
- 40:39Object Recognition
- 42:00Virtual Worlds
- 43:18Brain interfaces
- 45:23Summary
- 46:33Personal Experience
- 47:23Outro
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