Predictably Agile
summary
Argues that predictability means narrowing lead time variation rather than promising exact scope, uses cycle‑time scatterplots and percentiles (P85=16 days, P20=2 days → wide window) and shows halving cycle times yields P85=8/P20=1 but standard metrics like coefficient of variation and a “cycle‑time inequality” fail to capture usefulness. Proposes aging WIP and blocker tracking as leading indicators, uses Actionable Agile (with Jira plugin) dashboards and blocker heatmaps, and reports blocker counts >30 days falling from ~25 to <10, improving forecast usefulness.
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chapters (11)
- 0:00Start
- 3:03What kind of predictability?
- 7:18Measuring Business Impacts
- 13:30SAFe Program Predictability
- 22:17What is the range?
- 23:15Narrowing the gap
- 24:18Hypothesis 2
- 28:21Reducing Cycle Time
- 28:57Aging WIP
- 31:54Blockers
- 35:33How do you feel about measuring agile predictability?
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