Valuing Smart Contract Platforms
summary
Claims value is tied to discounted cash flow of transaction fees not to the need to pay miners, with $148M in 2018 vs 40M in 2017 as base revenue inputs. Uses a DCF with a 3.5x growth assumption and conservative TAM to justify roughly double current price if assumptions hold. Predicts atomic state transitions remain scarce after sharding, creating independent fee markets per shard and a likely fee markets split by shard with up to 100x fee differentials between DeFi-heavy and low‑value shards.
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chapters (7)
- 0:00Token valuation models
- 1:50Flawed fee value driver
- 3:57Ethereum fee growth
- 6:49DCF model for Ethereum
- 10:45Sharding and fee dynamics
- 15:00Fees versus store of value
- 17:10Gas price expectations
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