Statistical Inference I
summary
Defines a statistical model, loss and risk, then compares three binomial estimators delta0 = X/n, delta1 = (X+3)/n, delta2 = (X+3)/(n+6) and plots MSE vs θ to show delta1 is inadmissible while delta0 and delta2 trade bias for variance. Explains bias–variance decomposition, Bayes vs minimax criteria (uniform prior yields Bayes estimator = (X+1)/(n+2) for squared loss), notes Bayes-optimal rule is the posterior mean, discusses empirical/hierarchical Bayes and practical computational/prior elicitation issues.
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chapters (15)
- 0:00Introduction to estimation
- 0:54Statistical models
- 3:33Estimators and statistics
- 5:32Loss and risk functions
- 7:26Understanding risk functions
- 9:16Evaluating estimators
- 15:30Bayes and minimax risk
- 18:39Minimax risk properties
- 25:24Unbiased estimators
- 27:37Bias-variance tradeoff
- 32:31Bayesian inference
- 41:10Choosing priors
- 44:48Randomized estimators
- 47:34Empirical and hierarchical Bayes
- 53:03Using non-informative priors
