Win More Effectively in Real-Time Bidding
summary
Frames bidding as surplus maximization using probabilistic models and quantile regression (pinball loss) to predict market price distributions, then searches quantiles to pick the bid that maximizes expected surplus. Model uses embeddings and a gated cross network, consumes 600 TB of data, makes 250M predictions/day with <50 ms latency, and in an A/B test keeps win rate stable while achieving 12% lower spend.
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chapters (8)
- 0:00Introduction and background
- 3:57Real-time bidding basics
- 10:25Bidding strategies comparison
- 13:35Quantile regression approach
- 17:15Model architecture details
- 20:51Practical example and results
- 22:18AB test outcomes
- 23:21Conclusions and next steps
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