The Peltzman Effect: Adding More Process May Not Improve Quality
summary
Adding a test phase often leaves bug counts unchanged because of risk compensation: a three-year Munich taxi study finds ABS-equipped cabs have the same accident rate because drivers brake later and drive faster, and the same pattern appears in software. The core claim: quality processes get consumed by behaviour when (1) safety isn’t the primary goal, (2) benefits are tradable, and (3) decision-makers know they exist. Measured surprises: no accident reduction, and added test phases that don’t lower shipped defects. Fixes: manage expectations, apply benefits at bottlenecks, and change decision priorities.
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