Was He Wright All Along? Software After Moore's Law
summary
Argues that the historic gains attributed to Moore’s Law are better explained by Wright’s Law explains cost decline: cost per gate falls with cumulative production, not endless node shrinks. Shows Handel Jones’ data where cost per gate begins rising at advanced nodes and cites Santa Fe Institute work fitting Wright to microprocessors. Explains why Dennard scaling and atomic limits end frequency scaling, why the memory wall and speculative execution create real software constraints, and why we will see ubiquitous 7nm-era compute via 2.5D/TSV and specialized accelerators.
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chapters (10)
- 0:00The origin of Moore's Law
- 2:45Radical visions of 1965
- 4:58Economics vs. density
- 8:17Scaling and speed
- 10:44The golden era of computing
- 13:38Hitting the memory wall
- 18:48Speculation and architecture
- 24:16The decline of Moore's Law
- 26:58Beyond traditional scaling
- 30:33Return to Wright's Law
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