Chasing the Overton Window
summary
General Social Survey data (≈70,000 interviews) map beliefs to a 15-question conservatism scale using item response theory and Bayesian imputation; analysis uses resampling and LOWESS and code in NumPy SciPy Pandas. Key claims: older cohorts report more conservative ID but cohorts become more liberal with age (Simpson’s paradox); generational replacement drives change; polarization gap grows from about 2.5 to 3.7 questions out of 15.
AI-written summary · about
chapters (15)
- 0:00Overton Paradox introduction
- 1:08Defining the paradox with data
- 3:16Older people more conservative
- 6:29Measuring beliefs with IRT
- 9:59Older views more conservative
- 10:42Generational liberal shifts
- 13:07Age, period, cohort effects
- 15:15Why people think they shift right
- 17:40Overton window and policy shifts
- 20:08Generational replacement and polarization
- 22:17Time travel thought experiment
- 26:41Abe Simpson’s warning
- 27:46Summary and implications
- 28:30Further reading
- 30:57Q&A
related talks
31mUsing Simpson’s Paradox to Discover Interesting Patterns in...
08mThe Consistency of Gamification User Types: A Study on the Change of Preferences over Time
41mScaling sentiment: Using digital surveys to geotarget vaccine distribution
32mThe Inspection Paradox is Everywhere
59mEverybody lies
03mCrypto Confidence Index and Sentiment Analysis
01h 14mA Call for Data Dignity Is there a Need for a New Right to Be Seen in the Age of...
42mWorld in Transition