Probabilistic Graphical Models, HMMs using PGMPY
summary
Covers building and querying generative probabilistic models with the open source pgmpy library, showing how to enter CPDs, run variable elimination queries and do evidential reasoning on examples like a restaurant traffic model and fraud detection. Emphasizes that Bayesian networks and HMMs give uncertainty estimates from few samples (coin‑toss demos show variance shrinking as N increases), support structure and parameter learning from data, and let users generate synthetic examples; notebooks and code are on GitHub.
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chapters (43)
- 0:00Introduction
- 2:02Scenario
- 4:20Deep Neural Net
- 5:54Real Business Problems
- 9:03Mathematical Questions
- 12:03Agenda
- 13:53Ria Aggarwal
- 15:09What is probability
- 15:29What are random variables
- 16:13What is the conditional probability
- 17:07What is marginalization
- 17:34Bayesian vs Markov
- 18:33Examples
- 21:02Bayesian Networks
- 21:34Conditional Probability Distribution
- 22:32Joint Distribution
- 22:54Weather Outlook
- 23:21Causal Reasoning
- 25:06Flow of Influence
- 27:23Active Trails
- 27:52Independence
- 29:37Markov
- 30:02Independence Assumption
- 30:24Dynamic Bayesian Networks
- 31:04Hidden Markov Model
- 31:47Plate Model
- 32:18Plate Models
- 32:54Markov Networks
- 35:20Factors
- 39:55Gibbs Distribution
- 41:42Conditional Random Fields
- 47:20Log Linear Models
- 48:50Utility Functions
- 50:00Exercises
- 51:11GitHub
- 51:57Notebooks
- 52:31PGMPY Library
- 52:41Building a Bayesian Model
- 54:32Evidence
- 55:27CPD
- 56:52Variable Elimination
- 58:46evidential reasoning
- 59:24Bayesian inference
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