Misunderstanding
summary
Argues that clear reasoning beats slogans by showing concrete failures and fixes: Gilb's law framed risks of measurement but measuring has costs, numbers mislead, and measurement changes behavior; cites a late‑20th‑century study of several dozen projects whose conclusion about bug‑fix cost later proves wrong because it assumed waterfall; reports a real case where Spork sped tests but degraded design; uses the phenolphthalein rat study to show correlation ≠ causation and defends agile as the best available evidence‑backed practice.
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chapters (12)
- 0:00Start
- 6:16Gathering Evidence
- 12:51Standards of Proof
- 14:46Kinds of Evidence
- 20:39Binary Thinking
- 31:39Options
- 35:18Hidden Assumptions
- 41:33Practice Makes Perfect
- 44:59Black-Scholes
- 47:17Phenolphthalein
- 51:39An Introduction to General Systems Thinking
- 53:58Complex Questions
