Epidemics 3
Talkat Graph Limits and Processes on Networks: From Epidemics to Misinformation Boot Camp · 2022-08-29..09-02·
summary
A branching‑process approximation gives the minor‑outbreak probability and the final‑size equation 1−τ = e^{−R0 τ}, and 10,000 simulations at R0=1.5 concentrate near τ≈0.583. On networks the basic reproduction uses the size‑biased degree and acquaintance vaccination halves required coverage in heavy‑tailed examples (≈50% vs 77%). Adaptive rewiring can paradoxically increase final size and produces a discontinuous jump in outbreak size as transmission rises. Under a linear cost constraint the optimal control is do nothing until peak then a maximal temporary lockdown.
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chapters (8)
- 0:00Introduction
- 22:05Branching processes and final size
- 28:07SIR model simulations
- 43:50Optimal prevention in SIR
- 55:30Epidemics on networks and vaccination
- 1:09:18Adaptive networks and social distancing
- 1:29:34Prevention results and conclusions
- 1:35:26Q&A
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