~/talk

Bitcoin Prediction Markets

on YouTube 14m
Talkat bitcoin++ Toronto, consensus edition 2026 · 2026-07-22..07-24· [bitcoin]

speaker

name:James Pierog
github:jamespierog

resources

video:https://youtu.be/O-btakSpH0s
slides:none on file

summary

Claim: a working Bitcoin prediction market called Glimpse aggregates traders into a single probabilistic forecast using the logarithmic market scoring rule implemented as event contracts with cost function C(Q) that pay 1 or 0. Markets run hourly markets and currently show one‑week distributions with plans for year‑long markets. A prior experiment, bitcoin prediction.market, tested pool‑mining bets with winner‑take‑all payouts. Glimpse exposes an API + historical data and avoids markets susceptible to insider trading.

AI-written summary · about

chapters (8)

  1. 0:00Bitcoin prediction markets intro
  2. 1:31Why Bitcoin needs forecasts
  3. 2:36Prediction market scoring rules
  4. 4:22LMSR for market scoring
  5. 5:47Glimpse Bitcoin price demo
  6. 7:53Beyond price predictions
  7. 10:52Real-world Bitcoin markets
  8. 13:28Future of prediction markets

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