HODLing Is Hard: Fundamentals, Cycle & On Chain Analysis
summary
Argues Bitcoin can become a world reserve by competing with gold and fiat within 5–10 years, shows M2 comparisons and a log-scale price vs supply plot, uses halving-driven four‑year cycles and a spiral chart of on‑chain metrics (active supply, coin age, capital flow) to mark fair‑price surface and clustered bear bottoms ~2 years out, gives inflation path numbers (about 8% last five years → ~4% next five → ~2% thereafter), and flags ETF inflows as a structural change.
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chapters (21)
- 0:00Introduction
- 1:20My conviction in Bitcoin
- 2:00Privacy
- 3:13Bitcoin vs Gold
- 6:12Bitcoin vs Euro
- 10:23Bitcoin Volatility
- 11:37Onchain Data
- 12:33Capital Flow
- 14:16Bitcoin Recovery
- 14:52Bitcoin Psychological Patterns
- 17:10Q4 2024
- 18:47Covid Crash
- 19:18Two Scenarios
- 20:55Interview
- 21:37M2 Money Supply
- 23:12Bitcoin Cycle Maximalism
- 24:55Is This Time Different
- 26:13Is This A Cancer
- 27:27The Problem With Institutions
- 27:59The UKs Response To Bitcoin
- 29:00Final Thoughts
