Historical Analysis of Exploit Availability Timelines
Talkat 13th USENIX Workshop on Cyber Security Experimentation and Test (CSET '20) · on Monday, 2020-08-10·
summary
Analysis of 75,807 CVE‑IDs across seven years finds 4.1% within 365 days end up with public exploit code linked in Metasploit/ExploitDB GitHub repos, totaling 3,164 CVEs. Survival modeling (Cox proportional hazards) shows median time to exploit publication is 2 days with mean 91 days and a long tail. CWE category strongly shifts likelihood, CVSS and recency have small positive effects, vendor effects are inconsistent, and having more vendors does not increase exploit publication.
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chapters (12)
- 0:00Introduction
- 0:27Historical Analysis
- 1:52Research Questions
- 3:33Background
- 5:02Survival Analysis
- 6:43Data Sources
- 8:40Results
- 11:11Visual Analysis
- 13:31Interpretation
- 14:46Limitations
- 15:13Future work
- 15:34Outro
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