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New Directions in Probabilistic Models of Evolution

population geneticists, mathematical biologists, phylogeneticists, computational biologists, infectious disease modelers, cancer modelers, biostatisticians

multispecies coalescent methods; incomplete lineage sorting; hybridization network inference; multitype branching trees; coalescent point process models; lineage-based birth-death models; selective sweep in structured populations; power-law long-range dispersal; within-host pathogen evolution; B cell affinity maturation; evolutionary rescue in structured populations; spatial Moran models for field cancerization

titleauthorlength
Modeling the Evolution of Genes and Genomes in the Presence of ILS and HybridizationLuay Nakhleh44m
Presents a likelihood framework that sums over coalescent histories to compute gene tree probabilities under both incomplete lineage sorting and hybridization…
Talk
Accounting for Gene Tree Estimation Error in Species Tree Reconstruction: Quantity Versus QualitySebastien Roch45m
Species-tree recovery under the multispecies coalescent has a concrete trade-off: let F be the probability a lineage coalesces inside the short branch. Methods…
Talk
Genetic Diversity in the Interference Selection LimitMichael Desai45m
Claims that genetic diversity under pervasive purifying selection is set primarily by the population variance in fitness rather than by individual s or Ud…
Talk
The Acceleration of Evolutionary Spread by Long-Range DispersalOskar Hallatschek49m
A lattice contact-process model with power-law dispersal kernel (tail ~ r^{-μ-d}) and stochastic birth-death rules shows three concrete growth regimes: when…
Talk
Tracking the Invisible: A Probabilistic Approach to Field CancerizationRick Durrett, Marc Ryser42m
A lattice spatial Moran/biased voter model with zeros, ones and twos and three asymptotic regimes predicts how invisible premalignant fields grow, produces…
Talk
Hindering Evolution in Prostate CancerDavid Basanta44m
A hybrid agent-based + PDE model recreates trabecular bone homeostasis and prostate cancer bone metastases on roughly a 500×200 grid with ~20 μm cell sites…
Talk
Evolutionary Rescue in Structured PopulationsJoachim Hermisson49m
An island model with two genotypes (wild type and single mutant), mutation rate u and parameters r (wild-type decline) and m (migration) is analyzed using…
Talk
The Duration of a Selective Sweep in a Structured PopulationPeter Pfaffelhuber37m
Claim: with selection strength alpha -> infinity and migration mu ~ alpha^P (0<P<1), fixation time scales like (3 - P) (log alpha)/alpha (versus 2 (log…
Talk
Ancestral Features of Multitype Branching TreesLea Popovic40m
Analyzes multitype Galton–Watson trees by embedding the full genealogy to produce a coalescent point process and encoding the reduced phylogeny as a…
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From Individual-based Population Models to Lineage-based Models of Phylogenetic TreesAmaury Lambert42m
Lineage-based birth–death models map to coalescent point process trees when speciation and extinction depend only on time, age or nonheritable traits, giving…
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Modeling the Evolution of Within-host Reproductive Rates in PathogensJonathan Dushoff46m
Field data show canine rabies R0 clustered near one across very different Tanzanian districts despite ~5× differences in dog density and contact tracing that…
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Probabilistic Models for Pathogen Evolution Within and Between HostsShishi Luo43m
Within-host ODE viral dynamics plus a Poisson mutation model shows the probability of antigenic immune escape first rises then falls with increasing host…
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Mutation and Site-specific Selection Driving B Cell Affinity Maturation is Consistent Across...Erick Matsen43m
Deep Illumina sequencing of the CDR3 region (5 million reads per person, 130 nt) is used to fit separate nucleotide substitution matrices for V, D and J…
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Tools for Understanding the Geography of AdaptationPeter Ralph48m
Models connect mutation arrival and spread to concrete spatial scales using Poisson cones for space time of successful mutations and subcritical branching…
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Quantitative Trait Evolution when Mutations have Large EffectsJosh Schraiber44m
Develops a coalescent model for quantitative traits with loci drawing mutational effects from arbitrary kernels, computes joint distributions via…
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Mathematical Problems in the Evolution of SenescenceDavid Steinsaltz49m
Develops two concrete models with proofs and computations: a measure-valued model of mutation accumulation that allows age-spread effects, concave (negative)…
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Mutation Accumulation and Empirical CalibrationKenneth Wachter48m
A mutation‑accumulation model calibrated to hunter‑gatherer life tables and exome sequencing argues that the relevant class is mildly deleterious…
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Fitness Landscapes and Adaptive EvolutionJoachim Krug50m
Study of accessible mutational pathways uses ~20 empirical 5–9 locus datasets, Fourier spectra, and random-field models (House-of-Cards, NK, Rough Mount Fuji)…
Talk on
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